{"id":7338,"date":"2024-03-08T19:10:59","date_gmt":"2024-03-08T19:10:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/karakoraminitiative.org\/?p=7338"},"modified":"2024-03-11T18:01:54","modified_gmt":"2024-03-11T18:01:54","slug":"pakistan-and-the-case-of-carbon-emissions","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/karakoraminitiative.org\/?p=7338","title":{"rendered":"Pakistan and the Case of Carbon Emissions"},"content":{"rendered":"

Pakistan, a recent victim of climate change-induced disasters, is fighting for its survival.<\/p>\n

In 2022, 33 million people were displaced<\/strong> due to extreme precipitation leading to catastrophic flooding. To put that into context, think about the population of one of the most dense urban centers (Karachi, New Delhi) and double the population of those cities. Moreover, almost one-third of the country<\/strong> was submerged in water, and more than 4 million acres of cropland was destroyed<\/strong> or damaged, pushing much of the impacted populace to poverty and further adding a strain on the already crippling economy (Source: Brookings, 2022).<\/p>\n

Pakistan contributes less than 1% to global carbon emissions, yet is 8th most vulnerable to climate crisis<\/strong>. Needless to say, climate change has become a very prominent economic issue in this developing nation, so let\u2019s explore what could be exacerbating the impact of global warming in this part of the world.<\/p>\n

The Data<\/strong><\/p>\n

To conduct this analysis, I will be using the World Development Indicators<\/strong> dataset obtained from the World Bank containing over a thousand annual indicators of economic development compiled from officially-recognized regional sources (Source: World Bank).<\/p>\n

Let\u2019s start by uploading the data file and getting an idea of what the data looks like (data period spans over 20 years from 2000\u20132021).<\/p>\n

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Python does not deal well with column names with spaces embedded (e.g. Indicator Name), hence we will start by doing a find-replace in the dataframe for more-easily readable column names.<\/p>\n

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Since we have data on 1,400+ development indicators, we want to filter for carbon emissions using mask<\/em><\/strong> and see what the trajectory looks like for the country in the dataset.<\/p>\n

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In order to plot the data more cleanly and generally across different indicators and countries, we will need to pivot the data in the following manner:<\/p>\n

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With the data in a more plot-friendly format, let\u2019s start visualizing some trends.<\/p>\n

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CO2 Emissions Trend in Pakistan<\/p>\n

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Line trend showing increasing emissions in Pakistan<\/p>\n

Few observations to draw from the plots above are 1) Turns out emissions per capita have increased over time specifically, we see peak in 2018 2) No data has been recorded for 2020, 2021 showing inconclusive trend for that period.<\/p>\n

Since human-caused emissions come primarily from burning fossil fuels for energy use, the first step is to dive into the main sources of carbon emissions. Graphically assessing this data (see chart below) shows emissions from electricity and heat production as the biggest contributor<\/strong>, although it has had a downward trajectory over the past few years. Second in place, Manufacturing industries emissions<\/strong> show a period of incline in the early 2000s, a peak in the middle where it even surpasses emissions from electricity in 2007, and a steady decline from 2010 to 2015. Emissions from the combustion of fuel for transport activity and residential buildings has been on the rise since 2010, which could partly be due to the population growth (detailed in the next section).<\/p>\n

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\"\"<\/p>\n

CO2 Emissions by Source<\/p>\n

But where does Pakistan stand in terms of its contribution to global warming? Let\u2019s compare to some neighboring and other countries.<\/p>\n

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Pakistan vs World Average Emissions<\/p>\n

In 2016, Pakistan contributed to 0.50% <\/strong>of the total global CO2 emissions. It is clear from this bar chart that Pakistan is not a big carbon polluter, and hence, does not contribute much to the warming of the planet. But we still need to understand what are some key actors leading to a rise in CO2 emissions in the country.<\/p>\n

Pakistan\u2019s GDP & its affect on Emissions<\/h2>\n

So let\u2019s start by exploring some economic indicators such as GDP Per Capita (For my non-economist friends, GDP per capita is gross domestic product divided by midyear population<\/strong>.).<\/em><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

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Pakistan GDP Per Capita (2000\u20132021)<\/strong><\/p>\n

Overall, looking at this particular indicator, we see an increase in GDP Per Capita in Pakistan over the years, similar to CO2 emissions upwards trend. Now, let\u2019s visualize the relationship between GDP and CO2 Emissions and understand whether there is a direct correlation there.<\/p>\n

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Since the values for 2020, 2021 were missing for CO2 Emissions, we will need to drop the last two rows<\/strong> in both sub datasets to avoid an incorrect analysis.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

This looks like a strong relationship. We can test this by looking at correlation.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

A correlation of +0.91414167<\/strong> is pretty strong, which leads us to conclude that growing per capita GDP in Pakistan had lead to increasing carbon dioxide emissions over the past 20 years.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Population Up, Carbon Emissions Up<\/h2>\n

Similar trends and positive correlation was observed when plotting population indicators like total population, population density, population in urban agglomerations of more than 1 million, showing population growth leads to increasing consumption of fossil-fuel generated services or products. This will naturally increase greenhouse gases in a low-resource country such as Pakistan.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Population growth leads to higher emissions.<\/p>\n

Rapid Urbanization Rate, Greater Environmental Impact<\/h2>\n

With little economic opportunity found in rural parts of the country, most dwellers tend to move to major cities to provide for their families. Pakistan is no exception to this concept of urbanization, having one of the highest urban population rates among South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) countries. This is evident from the data provided in the WDI dataset, charted below, showing a rapid growth in not just population residing in cities and towns but also, leading to high population density in those centers. A study conducted by the Department of Geography at Punjab University concluded that the rapid urbanization in Lahore has been the major cause of loss of vegetation and has caused a number of environmental problems in the city like air pollution, water scarcity, loss of biodiversity (Shirazi, S.A., Kazmi, J.H, 2016) \u2014 all in all, more people, more consumption, more cars, more pollution leading to higher emissions.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Fertilizer consumption can lead to higher emissions<\/h2>\n

One of the more fascinating finds in this analysis was the impact of fertilizer use on carbon emissions. Fertilizers, mainly comprising of nitrogen, produce greenhouse gases once farmers apply them to their fields. Crops only take up, on average, about half of the nitrogen they get from fertilizers whereas majority of the applied fertilizer runs off into waterways, or gets broken down by microbes in the soil, releasing the potent greenhouse gas nitrous oxide into the atmosphere (Source: Houlton, Benjamin Z., et al, 2019)<\/em>. With a direct, positive correlation between the two indicators, Pakistan, being an agricultural country, needs to tackle this problem and find more sustainable ways to increase crop yields.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

What can policy makers do with this data?<\/h2>\n

Being a developing nation, Pakistan is on a upward trajectory of releasing carbon emissions and contributing to global warming. Needless to say, there is an imminent need for policy analysts to start collecting and exploring indicators that could lead to climate-change curbing data-driven policies.<\/p>\n

To start off, looking at the data presented in this article, policy-makers should start by addressing the biggest actors at play here to meet emissions-reduction targets: control population growth, switch to cleaner energy alternatives, invest in environmentally friendly fertilizers, reforestation across urban cities, plan cities better by implementing zoning to allow for more greener zones, subsidize zero-emission\/ electric vehicles and so on.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

References:<\/b><\/p>\n

Brookings, 2022:<\/strong> https:\/\/www.brookings.edu\/blog\/future-development\/2023\/02\/10\/pakistan-floods\/<\/a><\/p>\n

World Bank<\/strong>: https:\/\/databank.worldbank.org\/source\/world-development-indicators<\/a><\/p>\n

Shirazi, S.A., Kazmi, J.H, 2016. <\/strong>Analysis of socio-environmental impacts of the loss of urban trees and vegetation in Lahore, Pakistan: a review of public perception. Ecol Process<\/em> 5<\/strong>, 5.<\/p>\n

Houlton, Benjamin Z., et al<\/strong>, 2019<\/strong>. \u201cA World of Cobenefits: Solving the Global Nitrogen Challenge<\/a>.\u201d Earth\u2019s Future, vol. 7, no. 8, 2019, pp. 865\u201372. Wiley Online Library.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Pakistan, a recent victim of climate change-induced disasters, is fighting for its survival. In 2022, 33 million people were displaced due to extreme precipitation leading to catastrophic flooding. To put that into context, think about the population of one of the most dense urban centers (Karachi, New Delhi) and double the population of those cities. […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":10,"featured_media":7384,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[72],"tags":[],"ppma_author":[133],"class_list":["post-7338","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-climate-and-energy"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nPakistan and the Case of Carbon Emissions - The Karakoram Initiative<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"http:\/\/karakoraminitiative.org\/?p=7338\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Pakistan and the Case of Carbon Emissions - The Karakoram Initiative\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Pakistan, a recent victim of climate change-induced disasters, is fighting for its survival. 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